Iran might be the biggest loser in the Arab Spring

Published on 2 February 2012 in Opinion
The Atlantic Colin Kahl (author)

The Atlantic Colin Kahl

hide

When Mubarak fell, Iran’s leaders moved out with swagger. They saw one pivotal US ally gone, and perceived an opportunity to exploit unrest to undermine other pro-Western regimes, especially Saudi Arabia. They sought to develop contacts with Islamists in Egypt and Libya, expand ties to opposition movements in Yemen, and capitalize on the indigenous Shiite protests in Bahrain. And Iran’s leaders seemed confident that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, Tehran’s state ally in the Middle East, was immune from the populist wave because of its militant stance toward Israel and the United States.

One year later, however, it is hard to find evidence that Iran has benefited from the Arab uprisings. In fact, Iran’s regional position has taken a big hit. With the partial exception of Yemen, Tehran has struggled to build new networks of influence with emerging Islamist actors. Meanwhile, Assad’s regime has been thoroughly delegitimized, expelled from the Arab League, and is wobbling in the face of nationwide protests. This, in turn, has created considerable anxiety for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that constitutes Iran’s chief non-state ally.

The perception of Iranian meddling has also decimated Tehran’s “soft power” appeal across the Arab world. Surveys conducted in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates by Zogby International show Iran’s reputation in free fall since the Arab Spring began. Just a few years ago, Iran enjoyed a strong majority of support among the populations of all these countries; as of July 2011, Iran had a net unfavorable rating in every country but Lebanon.

1 Response(s) to “Iran might be the biggest loser in the Arab Spring”

Me 3.02.2012 at 05:40

"The perception of Iranian meddling has also decimated Tehran’s “soft power” appeal across the Arab world." ------- Perception is created by media manipulation. Iran was policing the Gulf during Shah's rule and it was not perceived as meddling - [Robert Fisk writes in "Another Fine Mess": The restoration of the young Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi - our policeman in the Gulf - was the ultimate goal] - Now, for the US and Saudi Arabia, Iran is a problem. Saudi Arabia regards the Islamic Republic of Iran as the 'head of the snake' and wanted it attacked in the last years of the Bush Administration. During Shah's rule, the Iranian Shia were perceived to be good Muslims – now, the media turned them into " infidels, Khawareg, Rafadi and Safawi". With a regime change in Iran, the Iranian Shia will be perceived as good Muslims again and Tehran will regain the “soft power appeal across the Arab world".

Unity Day: What does it mean to you?

Constitution of the Republic of Yemen, 1990